President Trump said on social media this weekend that he would start sending tariff increase letters to countries with which the U.S. does not reach satisfactory trade deals beginning at noon on Monday. Trade experts expect a number of foreign nations to receive notices that higher tariff rates will go into effect August 1.
Mr. Trump said the “tariff letters” would go out at 12:00 p.m. EST, ahead of a July 9 deadline for the U.S.’s trade partners to negotiate deals or else face country-based tariff rates. President Trump announced so-called “reciprocal tariff” rates on April 2, which he dubbed “Liberation Day.” He instituted a 90-day pause on the country-specific levies, which expires July 9.
“I am pleased to announce that the UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters, and/or Deals, with various Countries from around the World, will be delivered starting 12:00 P.M. (Eastern), Monday, July 7th,” Trump said on Truth Social late Sunday. “Thank you for your attention to this matter! DONALD J. TRUMP, President of The United States of America.”
The White House did not immediately respond to CBS MoneyWatch’s request for comment on which countries would receive letters notifying them of higher tariff rates.
Similar to club membership fee
Trade policy expert Barry Appleton, co-director of Center for International Law at New York Law School, told CBS MoneyWatch that the country-based levies are akin to membership fees guaranteeing entry into a private club.
“What’s been going on since ‘Liberation Day’ is Trump has been receiving applications for membership,” Appleton told CBS MoneyWatch. “He has countries coming to him with proposals of what they would negotiate in the deal.”
Similar to a club, Appleton said, “the administration decides what to charge, whether it’s full price, friends and family, or a special friends and family rate,” in reference to the Trump administration’different levies on different nations. “It depends on what you’re going to give him.”
Appleton added that the U.S. has the ability to charge “whatever the market will pay, and a lot of countries desperately want access to the U.S.”
On Monday, Mr. Trump is expected to announce which countries will be subject to higher tariffs than the baseline 10% rate currently on all imports to the U.S. Those rates would likely go into effect Aug. 1, Mr. Trump said Friday. The president had previously said they would kick in on July 9.
“Good, bad, ugly” scenarios
Brian Mulberry, portfolio manager at Zacks Investment Management, told CBS MoneyWatch that countries the Trump administration believes have been engaging in good-faith negotiations will not receive notices Monday.
“Ultimately, countries that have been actively participating in negotiations already will get some type of reciprocal structure,” he said.
There are three broad outcomes as far as rates go, he added.
“We have a good, bad, ugly scenario,” Mulberry said. A 10% tariff rate would be a “good” outcome, whereas 20% tariffs would be bad, and anything higher would be considered “ugly.”
“Countries had an opportunity over the past 90 days to make they’re best offers, and if you were not participating, you could end up getting a number,” he said.
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