Donald Trump’s trade plans are likely to be significantly clearer by the end of this week, with the president announcing early Monday that “UNITED STATES TARIFF Letters” will begin being delivered at 12 noon ET today and his team promising several new agreements by the end of the week.
But an array of parallel comments from the president on down have also underlined to markets that this week is unlikely to provide finality on the Trump trade agenda.
That’s because even as Trump talks about being largely “done” on July 9, trade talks appear primed to continue unabated in the weeks ahead as his team acknowledges that ambitious early plans to finalize an wide array of trade deals around the world by this week haven’t panned out.
“The financial markets, understandably, may be confused,” Greg Valliere of AGF Investments noted in a letter to clients, adding: “Get used to this.”
That confusion comes as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated Sunday that countries could see tariffs “boomerang back to your April 2 tariff level,” but that they apparently will have additional weeks to negotiate before any duties actually change on Aug. 1.
Trump himself revealed this actual Aug. 1 deadline last week. “They’ll start to pay on Aug. 1,” he told reporters Friday of his still-to-be unveiled letters. “The money will start to come into the United States on Aug. 1.”
The situation is similar as negotiations with major trading partners continued and those negotiations are primed to see some combination of a letter or a deal this week — but again with finality unlikely.
At least one Trump aide offered a signal Sunday that talks won’t be ending when Stephen Miran, chair of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said on ABC’s “This Week” that if a country is negotiating in good faith “but the deal is just not there yet because it needs more time, my expectation would be that those countries get the date rolled.”
Other aides have offered similar messages with Secretary Bessent previously talking about having trade issues “wrapped up by Labor Day” and Trump reminding “we can do whatever we want.”
And Trump has continued to bring in other issues into the trade talks, such as an announcement Monday morning that he planned to use a 10% tariff to dissuade nations from lining up against him through an intergovernmental organization comprising 10 countries known as BRICS.
What it means for markets
The push for deals this week also comes after Trump has scored a series of wins in recent weeks that could strengthen his hand. They range from signing his megabill into law to muted signs of tariff inflation thus far to increased influence overseas that led to a recent spending hike at NATO.
But trade has proved more difficult. Trump has announced framework agreements so far with the likes of the United Kingdom and Vietnam, but other deals with key trading partners such as the European Union, India, Japan, and others and more are very much up in the air.
Trump has lessened tensions with China and negotiations there — between the world’s two largest economies — are now facing a separate early August deadline.
As for what it means for markets, the effects of continued uncertainty could be muted. Capital Economics’ Thomas Matthews wrote Monday morning that “despite the uncertainty about tariffs, we continue to expect US markets — especially equities and the dollar — to rally.”
The economic effects of tariffs — so far at least — have proven less dramatic on inflation. And traders have become less reactive to Trump trade pronouncements, noting he has proven to blink in the face of economic turmoil and often changes his mind later anyway.
As Edward Yardeni, the President of Yardeni Research, put it in a recent note: “In recent weeks, many investors bought stocks as they stopped panicking over Trump’s trade war.”
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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