President Trump and his billionaire financier Elon Musk are at war, again — this time over Trump’s debt-packed budget bill. Trump and Musk’s bitter public quarrels have become an all-too-common (and all-too-embarrassing) part of our political culture, but this week’s war of words seemed to throw the relationship into a deep freeze.
Once Trump’s closest ally and confidant, Musk on Monday called for the creation of a new political party to challenge Trump’s “Porky Pig Party.” Musk further threatened to bankroll primary challenges against Republicans who support Trump’s budget while financing others like Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.), a vocal critic of the bill.
“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame!” Musk posted on X, the social media platform he owns. “And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”
Musk’s sudden shift is a dizzying about-face for a man who just last year donated over $280 million to elect Republicans nationwide. Faced with a possible midterm civil war against the richest man in the world, a growing number of Republican lawmakers are already busy making retirement plans. The rest will need to pick a side: Musk or Trump?
Conventional wisdom tells us that Trump’s MAGA movement defies political gravity. Only a fool would bet against the guy who staged the most unlikely political comeback in American history, right? On the surface it seems clear that Republican voters would rally behind Trump instead of the socially awkward Musk. But Musk doesn’t need to assemble his own voter army in order to beat Trump next year — he just needs to prevent Republicans from mobilizing their own voters.
Unfortunately for Trump, the Republican National Committee spent all of last year setting Musk up to do exactly that without even realizing it.
It’s ironic that Trump’s biggest threat emerged because of his fixation on dominating the social media conversation. Last year, Republicans willingly routed all of their social media content through X after Musk’s team altered the site’s algorithms to provide huge boosts to Republican-leaning accounts and content. This put Republican messaging in front of millions more voters than they otherwise would have reached, providing a critical boost for Republican candidates in close races.
If Musk decides to turn off MAGA’s big visibility boost, Republicans will struggle mightily to come anywhere near the record-breaking level of digital reach and engagement they achieved in 2024. Worse still, they’ll likely be fighting algorithms Musk has reprogrammed to punish lawmakers he’s trying to primary.
Musk’s proposed America Party would thrive in our current age of hucksterism. He’ll find plenty of eager aspiring candidates in his X replies, where a veritable circus of washed-up right-wing influencers are already volunteering to run for Congress on Musk’s dime. It would only take a few screwball primary victories to starve Republicans of critical media oxygen, throwing their slim House majority into jeopardy.
Republicans’ unfolding Musk drama will sound awfully familiar to California Rep. Ro Khanna, who predicted nearly this exact chain of events last month. At the time, Khanna faced criticism for suggesting Democrats could gradually pull Musk away from the Republican Party’s sphere of influence. As Democratic leaders debate how to process Musk’s threat to primary vulnerable House Republicans, they should make sure Khanna has a seat at the table now that events have proven him soundly right.
The calculus is much tougher for Republicans, who now face the miserable choice of outraging either Trump or Musk. But Musk does offer something unique among Trump critics — the prospect of real protection from Trump’s political retribution. If Musk makes clear that he’ll open his wallet to protect Republicans who speak out against the budget bill, Trump may find a surprising number of lawmakers willing to take Musk up on his deal.
Musk’s mountainous supply of cash and his control of the right-wing conversation flow on X makes him one of the only people in America who can actually challenge Trump’s control of the Republican Party. By offering safe haven to Trump-critical lawmakers — and bumping off a few MAGA loyalists next year — Musk could quickly establish himself as a rival power center with actual clout. That kind of play would reshape the political map in ways Trump never imagined.
Is Musk angry enough to do it?
Max Burns is a veteran Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies.
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