The Atlantic hurricane season’s first storms of the year have been short-lived rainmakers, dissipating after reaching tropical storm status. But while current conditions suggest July will remain sluggish, it’s not a trend that will stick around in what’s expected to be an above-average year.
Andrea kicked off the season on June 24, with Barry following on June 29, both lasting less than a day. The National Hurricane Center has flagged an area for possible development over Florida, but regardless of whether this system is named, it will be a prolific rainmaker for the peninsula.
The Eastern Pacific, on the other hand, has been bubbling. Hurricane Flossie — the basin’s sixth named storm this season — is expected to sideswipe southwest Mexico this week with flood and mudslide potential.
There’s a balancing act at play when tropical systems develop. While ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are warm enough to fuel hurricanes, disruptive winds are quickly tearing apart the seedling storms. Saharan dust plumes are also inhibiting hurricane formation by wrapping dry air into storms. Weather models, which take into account several factors, give no solid indications that well-organized, long-lasting storms could develop through mid-July.
Is this normal?
In short: yes. July tends to be more of a waiting month during hurricane season. On average, only one named storm forms in July, and this year may feel especially slow because the storms that have been named were very short-lived. Both the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basins should be relatively quiet well into July, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
But storms could still spin to life this month, and if any do, they have potential to be particularly dangerous. July storms in the Atlantic tend to develop in the shallow Caribbean or Gulf waters, which are warmer this time of year than other, deeper parts of the ocean.
This can fuel rapid intensification and quick landfall, amping up the threat due to short warning lead times. Human-caused climate change is causing hurricanes to produce heavier rainfall and intensify more rapidly than in previous decades.
As we move into August, attention shifts to what forecasters call the “main development region” — a vast swath of ocean from the west coast of Africa across the central tropical Atlantic. That area usually spawns late-season storms, and it’s where some of the strongest hurricanes originate.
Atlantic hurricane season peaks in mid-September. This season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 of which will become hurricanes, and 3 to 5 of these could reach major hurricane intensity of Category 3 or stronger. The agency said they are 70% confident in this particular outlook.
A season with even more unpredictability
Forecasters are used to dealing with uncertainty, but a new type of unpredictability is brewing this season.
A crucial source of satellite data that hurricane forecasters use monitor changes in storm intensity is expected to be shut down at the end of July, reportedly due to cybersecurity concerns. NOAA was blindsided by this announcement, CNN reported, though the agency has publicly maintained there are many other data sources that will allow for accurate forecasts this season.
The timing raises concerns, as the most active part of hurricane season takes place after July. As hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted on social media, “The whole thing raises more questions than it answers. The satellites work. Why not keep the data flowing to scientists who use it to forecast the deadliest storms on earth?”
This blow is dealt just as forecasters have also lost access to the fleet of drone boats that provided continuous, direct observations from below storms, and in the wake of staffing cuts throughout the agency.
In 2025, when meteorologists know more about hurricane forecasting than ever before, forecasters may be heading into the most dangerous hurricane months with a critical blind spot.
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