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2025 MLB home run leader odds: Will Aaron Judge lead the league again?

Last updated: March 26, 2025 1:49 pm
Oliver James
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2025 MLB home run leader odds: Will Aaron Judge lead the league again?
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Everyone digs the long ball.

“Home runs” is one of those statistics that seems to hold more weight than other statistics. 

In two of the last three years, Aaron Judge has led the league in dingers. The year he didn’t Iead Major League Baseball in homers, he missed nearly 60 games.

Let’s take a look at the odds on who is favored to lead the major leagues in home runs in 2025 at DraftKings Sportsbook as of March 26.

Most regular-season home runs

Aaron Judge: +360 (bet $10 to win $46 total)
Shohei Ohtani: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Kyle Schwarber: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Pete Alonso: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Brent Rooker: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Fernando Tatis Jr.: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Yordan Alvarez: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Juan Soto: +2800 (bet $10 to win $290 total)

Judge and Ohtani had quite the race last season, with the Yankees superstar hitting 58 and the Dodgers superstar finishing with 54. Ohtani also became the first player in MLB history to hit over 50 homers and steal over 50 bases. 

In 2022, Judge hit a career-high and American League record 62 home runs, and after last season, he has three seasons tallying over 50 home runs in a single season (2017, 2022, 2024).

As for Ohtani, he led the AL in home runs in 2023 with 44 (the year Judge was battling injuries) before leading the NL in home runs last season. 

Ohtani’s previous career high in home runs was 46 in 2021.

Outside the reigning AL and NL MVPs, third on the oddsboard is Philadelphia’s Schwarber. Over the past three seasons, he’s hit a total 131 home runs. 

DraftKings also posted odds for players to hit 60-plus home runs, 55-plus home runs and 50-plus home runs.

Judge is at +400 to hit 60 or more, at +210 to hit 55 or more, and at +105 to hit 50 or more.

Ohtani is at +800 to hit 60 or more, at +380 to hit 55 or more, and at +190 to hit 50 or more. 

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