Tesla (TSLA) is expected to report another tough quarter when it comes to electric vehicle deliveries. Investors are hoping the bigger story remains its burgeoning robotaxi tests.
For the second quarter, Tesla is expected to report global deliveries of 395,328, per Bloomberg consensus estimates, down 11% compared to a year ago but significantly higher than the 336,700 delivered in Q1. Production across its global plants is expected to come in at 443,321, up compared to last year’s 410,800 produced.
Sliding deliveries in the second quarter come as the company ramps up sales of its refreshed Model Y SUV, the company’s top seller, which was expected to boost sales.
Disappointing Q2 sales for Tesla are not exactly a surprise for investors and analysts following the company.
Tesla EV registrations (a proxy for sales) in Europe fell 27.9% in May compared to a year ago, per the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA). Meanwhile, overall EV registrations in the region, which includes the UK and the European Free Trade Association, rose 25% in May, with overall registrations down 0.6%.
May’s total marks the fifth straight month of declining Tesla sales in the European region. Tesla sales year to date in Europe through May are down 37.1% to 75,196 units.
The situation isn’t much better in the US. Tesla EV registrations for April dropped 16% to 39,913 registrations, according to data published by S&P Global Mobility (via Automotive News). Meanwhile, General Motors’ (GM) Chevrolet saw a 215% jump in EV registrations to finish in the second spot, with Ford (F) slipping to third place as sales fell 33%.
Not surprisingly, Wells Fargo’s Colin Langan wrote in a note to investors last week that Tesla’s fundamentals are coming in worse than expected. The bank is expecting second quarter deliveries to be down 21% compared to a year ago, with the firm’s 343,000 estimate significantly below Street consensus.
Demand weakness in the US and EU comes after CEO Elon Musk’s foray into Trump administration politics, which has caused some Tesla owners to become disillusioned with Musk, specifically by his right-leaning tendencies, support of right-wing leaders in Europe, and leadership of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) in the US.
Musk’s recent return to his businesses from politics is seen as a welcome move, but there is concern that Musk’s escapades will permanently damage Tesla’s reputation.
Key to changing the overall Tesla story has been the company’s ongoing robotaxi tests in Austin, Texas. While the test seemed to begin smoothly earlier this week, recent videos of robotaxi rides depict Tesla vehicles going faster than posted speed limits and committing traffic violations like driving through turn-only lanes and crossing double-yellow lines.
Though government regulators say they are watching, further testing and more vehicles added to the test are good news for Tesla, a company that finds its CEO touting the potential trillions in value created by AI and self-driving over the sliding fortunes of its core auto business.
Pras Subramanian is the lead auto reporter for Yahoo Finance. You can follow him on X and on Instagram.
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