By March 2025 — in just the second full month of President Trump’s second term — the number of criminal immigration prosecutions jumped by 36 percent over the month prior, reaching 4,550 charges per month. According to TRAC, this marks the sharpest monthly increase in recent years.
The first shot has been fired. After years of “catch and release,” the deportation machine is running again at full steam, and Southern states have become the main battleground.
From Texas to Florida, sheriffs are bracing for full jails, and everyone knows this is just the beginning. Unlike Biden’s slow-moving policy, Trump’s forces are moving fast — 70 percent of all cases are now initiated by Customs and Border Protection.
Back in 2019, the number peaked at 10,000 per month. He was already halfway back to that level in just his second full month in office. What happens by fall?
Republicans have tasted blood. Governors are already demanding more funding. The return of priority enforcement and pressure on ICE to deliver faster results with less bureaucracy has pushed the system into high gear — 36 percent growth in just one month.
The Trump administration is building up a new pressure system. Beyond simply reviving its old rhetoric on illegal immigration enforcement, it is building a more aggressive structure, handing real power to field-level actors.
The fact that 70 percent of cases are being opened by CBP, not ICE, shows how federal power is being pushed down to those counties with the most hardline politics. The new rule is already clear: less paper, please, and pass the handcuffs.
At the same time, border crossings fell to just 7,181 in March — a 95 percent drop compared to the same month last year. While some say it’s seasonal, the sharp rise in prosecutions seems to be acting as a strong warning. Meanwhile, ICE is quietly speeding up deportations, processing hundreds of thousands of migrants through faster removals in recent months, showing how the system is working behind the scenes to reduce border crossings.
In practice, this means that counties are once again becoming testing grounds, where new rules come as a blank check. Governors in Texas, Florida, and Louisiana are pushing to expand jurisdiction. Sheriffs are rebuilding the jail-to-deportation pipeline. Even minor charges are turning into ICE cases.
This mechanism is familiar to those who remember 2018 and 2019, but this time it started from day one and has been moving even faster. As Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) put it: “Our National Guard is helping ICE with arrests and deportations.” That’s the level of coordination now at play. This is less a return to immigration policy and more a rush into pre-conflict mode.
If this pace continues, we could hit 10,000 prosecutions per month by fall. For now, they are testing the limits. The real goal is not law enforcement, but a broad demonstration of strength.
America has restarted a machine that works not just for justice but also for power. First blood is a test — a signal of how ready the system is to obey. And if the course stays unchanged, a full-scale wave of deportations is coming.
Artem Kolisnichenko writes on crime, immigration, and border policy across the American South and Southwest.
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