New York City mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo leads state Assembly member Zohran Mamdani by 14 points in the final round of ranked choice voting in a poll released just ahead of the city’s much-anticipated primary.
The survey from Yale Polling/YouGov, released Monday, shows Cuomo ahead in the first round of vote tabulating by 10 points over Mamdani — 38 percent to 28 percent. New York City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams came in third with 12 percent, followed by city Comptroller Brad Lander with 7 percent and former Comptroller Scott Stringer with 6 percent.
All other candidates received 3 percent or less.
The ranked choice simulation — when a candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are redistributed to voters’ next available preference — continues until only Cuomo and Mamdani remain in contention. The former governor won in the 10th round, 57 percent to 43 percent.
The results show a brighter sign for Cuomo than those from the final survey of the primary race from Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill also released Monday. In that poll, he led in the first round by just 3 points, within the margin of error, and Mamdani came out on top in the final round, about 52 percent to 48 percent, also within the margin of error.
Cuomo has been the front-runner for the Democratic nomination for mayor for months, but Mamdani has closed the gap in recent weeks as he seeks to coalesce progressive opposition to the former Empire State governor’s attempted political comeback. How close Mamdani is to successfully pulling it off depends on the survey.
The latest Yale/YouGov poll shows Cuomo has the strongest support among Black voters, leading by 42 points, voters earning less than $50,000 per year, leading by 34 points, and voters without a college degree, leading by 44 points. Key to Mamdani’s coalition are white voters, leading by 18 points, voters earning more than $100,000 per year, leading by 20 points, and voters with a college degree, leading by 14 points.
Cuomo is also well ahead with voters 45 and older, while Mamdani leads among those under 45, the poll shows.
The ex-governor’s net favorability is slightly higher than the state lawmaker, though both candidates’ favorability ratings are roughly in line with each other. Cuomo is viewed at least somewhat favorably by 54 percent and unfavorably by 40 percent, while Mamdani is viewed at least somewhat favorably by 45 percent and unfavorably by 35 percent.
One additional X factor to the race may be the intense heat hitting the Northeast on Tuesday as voters head to the polls. Various candidates and New York stakeholders urged voters to cast their ballots early as forecasts predict temperatures could top 100 degrees in the city.
The weather’s effect, if any, on turnout remains to be seen.
The Yale/YouGov poll was conducted June 17-22 among 645 registered New York City voters — including 416 who voted or plan to vote in the Democratic primary. The margin of error for the entire sample was 5 percentage points, while the margin of error for Democratic primary voters specifically was 6.7 percentage points.
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