Democrats are closely watching two statewide primaries set to take place in Virginia on Tuesday in what could be a barometer for voter enthusiasm within the party ahead of November’s general elections.
Republican and Democratic primaries for state House districts will take place across the district, leaving the Democratic primaries for lieutenant governor and attorney general as the only statewide primaries on Tuesday.
Republicans already have their statewide nominees locked in, while former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (Va.) easily earned the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in April.
Tuesday’s races stand to give Democrats some insight into voter enthusiasm six months into President Trump’s second administration as they seek to maintain their narrow hold on the House of Delegates and flip the state’s executive branch in the fall.
Here are three things to watch ahead of Tuesday’s Virginia primaries.
Turnout
There are no statewide Republican primaries on Tuesday, but both parties will be watching turnout in state House district primaries across the commonwealth.
Democrats will also be watching turnout in their party’s crowded lieutenant gubernatorial primary and competitive attorney general primary.
However, turnout is important for Virginia Democrats in particular because it could give insight into how activated the party’s base is during the first year of Trump’s second administration.
In 2017, the first year of Trump’s first administration, Democrats saw victories in the gubernatorial, lieutenant gubernatorial and state attorney general races. And while Democrats did not win a majority in the House of Delegates that year, they narrowed the GOP majority to a one-seat advantage.
Virginia Democrats are already on track to surpass 2021 early vote numbers. According to the Virginia Public Access Project, more than 204,000 Virginians cast ballots as of June 15, when early voting wrapped. Of those ballots cast, more than 189,000 were cast in the Democratic primary. In 2021, more than 124,000 ballots were cast in the Democratic primary.
Democratic lieutenant governor primary
Six Democrats are running to be their party’s nominee for Virginia lieutenant governor, including Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney, state Sen. Aaron Rouse, state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, Prince William County School Board Chair Babur Lateef, federal prosecutor and law professor Victor Salgado and attorney Alex Bastani.
The winner will take on conservative radio host John Reid, who became the GOP nominee after Fairfax County Supervisor Pat Herrity dropped out of the primary in April.
A number of high-profile figures in and out of Virginia have waded into the primary to make endorsements.
Stoney has received endorsements from former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe (D). Rouse has received endorsements from Rep. Bobby Scott (D-Va.), former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), and Virginia state Senate President Louise Lucas (D). Hashmi has been backed by Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).
Stoney led the field in fundraising as of Monday, raising more than $2 million, according to the Virginia Public Access Project. Rouse trailed with more than $1.8 million, followed by Hashmi, who brought in more than $1.7 million.
The lieutenant governor’s position in Virginia is not only seen as a potential stepping stone to running for governor but also a tiebreaking vote in the state Senate.
Democratic attorney general primary
Former state Del. Jay Jones is facing off against Shannon Taylor, Henrico County commonwealth’s attorney, in the Democratic primary for attorney general.
Whoever wins will face off against Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares (R ) in November.
Both candidates have received high-profile endorsements.
Jones has been backed by Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), along with McAuliffe and former Virginia Gov. Ralph Northam. Taylor has the backing of former Attorneys General Mark Herring and Mary Sue Terry, EMILY’s List and former House of Delegates Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn.
According to the Virginia Public Access Project, as of Monday, Jones has raised roughly $2.7 million in the race while Taylor has raked in $2.1 million.
The primary has pitted two of the most influential Virginia energy donors against each other, with Clean Virginia backing Jones and Dominion Energy backing Taylor. Last week, Clean Virginia launched a six-figure attack ad against Taylor.
Both candidates have invoked President Trump in their campaign messaging in a bid to give voters a preview of how they would take on the administration if elected attorney general.
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