A key deadline in President Trump’s trade war is getting closer, with a 90-day pause on his “Liberation Day” tariffs set to expire on July 9.
But what will actually happen when the clock strikes midnight on what some are calling “Liberation Day 2.0” is anyone’s guess. A series of comments from Trump and his officials this week — even within a 12-hour span on Wednesday — were notable for the variety of scenarios they have on the table.
It could be a nonevent with additional deadline extensions in the offing. It might be a day of celebration of long-promised trade deals that have yet to materialize. And it could also be a day when the hammer comes down and tariffs are simply dictated.
Trump himself has indicated he is open to all three, telling reporters Wednesday evening that he will be sending letters to tell nations, “This is the deal, you can take it or leave it,” but also acknowledging that some deadlines could be extended, and on other fronts, “We’re rocking in terms of deals.”
The scenarios laid out this week by the president, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive, but which countries get which outcome will be closely watched by investors, as some outcomes are decidedly more market-friendly than others.
As for what will actually happen, Henrietta Treyz of Veda Partners offered a prediction in a Thursday morning note to Yahoo Finance suggesting a combination of all three.
“I think this is going to be like a potluck: There’s going to be a little bit of everything,” she said.
On the menu for about 130 nations will be letters, she suggested, “and I’m optimistic their rate will be in the 10-25% range.”
Other nations may be able to secure limited deals — such as a recent pact with the UK — but with plenty of tariffs staying on or being added. Others may get an extension for now.
Read more: What Trump’s tariffs mean for the economy and your wallet
3 seemingly different messages in 1 day
The uncertainty facing markets revolves around which scenario takes center stage in the coming weeks. The divergences were in stark relief Wednesday as the day unfolded.
In the morning, during a CNBC appearance, Lutnick suggested the centerpiece would be a flood of new deals. He said that with China tensions on the back burner for the moment, negotiators will able to find areas of agreement on other fronts.
“You’re going to see deal after deal,” he said. “This is going to start coming next week and the week after and the week after.”
But observers have grown increasingly unmoved by these promises after the administration has been suggesting imminent deals for months now, with only a limited pact with the UK materializing so far.
By midday, Bessent was testifying before Congress and offered a somewhat different portrait of the weeks ahead.
He indirectly acknowledged the slower pace of deals and said Trump is “highly likely” to push back his deadline for at least some top trading partners.
He said the administration is prepared to “roll the date forward” for the 18 major partners that are negotiating in what the administration views as good faith.
“If someone is not negotiating, then we will not,” Bessent added.
During his testimony, the Treasury secretary also floated the notion of regional trade deals, where a group of countries may get similar terms.
By the evening, Trump offered a third focus, announcing that he is going to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks to simply set new unilateral tariff rates.
The letters are “telling them what the deal is,” Trump told reporters Wednesday during a stop at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington, D.C.
But the president’s comments also offered a mix of his aides’ other messages from the day.
The president said he would be willing to extend the deadline for certain nations, “but I don’t think we’re going to have that necessity.”
He also suggested that deals could be imminent on at least a few fronts, noting that “we’re dealing with Japan, we’re dealing with South Korea. We’re dealing with a lot of them.”
Ben Werschkul is a Washington correspondent for Yahoo Finance.
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