Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
March Madness odds will have sports bettors of all levels on tilt over the next few days. That’ll happen when there are 48 games playing out over four days, including 16 apiece on Thursday and Friday.
The deluge of customers tends to get the oddsmakers on tilt a bit, too.
“They are running down the aisle like the Ultimate Warrior to bet March Madness, especially the first two days of the Tournament. It’s quite the spectacle,” said Rich Zanco, Caesars Sports’ head of college basketball trading.
Zanco and sharp college basketball bettor Paul Stone serve up their insights on March Madness first-round odds, heading into the biggest multi-day sports betting event in America.
Ziggin’ with the Zags
Gonzaga is typically a high seed in the NCAA Tournament, usually among the top four in whatever region it lands. This year, though, is different. The Zags are 25-8 straight up (SU) and a less-than-robust 14-19 against the spread (ATS).
The selection committee doled out a No. 8 seed to Gonzaga, which will face No. 9 seed Georgia (20-12 SU/17-15 ATS) in a Midwest Region matchup at 4:35 p.m. ET on Thursday.
When March Madness odds hit the board on Sunday night, both teams grabbed bettors’ attention.
“We opened Gonzaga -6, and that was quickly bet up to -7,” Zanco said on Tuesday afternoon. “But that didn’t last long. The professional money came in on Georgia at +7 and +6.5, taking us down to 6.”
In fact, Gonzaga briefly dipped to -5.5 (-115) on Tuesday afternoon, before returning to -6. Zanco, a college hoops junkie along with being an oddsmaker, isn’t sure if this Zags team is up to the task.
“That seems like a big number for Gonzaga to be laying. We’ll probably need Gonzaga,” Zanco said.
Ride the Tiger
Like Georgia, Missouri is another SEC team that made the NCAA Tournament. In fact, the SEC landed a whopping 14 teams — out of 16 — in the NCAA Tournament, a record for one conference.
The Tigers (22-11 SU/18-15 ATS) are the No. 6 seed in the West Region and will meet No. 11 seed Drake (30-3 SU/17-14 ATS) at 7:35 p.m. ET on Thursday. The wiseguys were eager to get on Mizzou.
“We opened Missouri -4.5 and got bet up to -6/-6.5. Professionals came in and took Missouri there,” Zanco said, noting it took only 30 minutes Sunday night for the line to jump 2 points. “Once again, sharps were gravitating toward the SEC team. The SEC is getting a lot of love this year.”
That said, the public betting masses see this game as a Day 1 upset special, taking Drake +210 on the moneyline. At those odds, a $100 bet would profit $210 (total payout $310) if the Bulldogs win outright.
“The betting public is on Drake. Moneyline ticket count is in excess of 6/1 on Drake,” Zanco said.
March Madness opening round best bets
March Madness Sharp Side
Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone went looking for some MACtion in NCAA Tournament odds. No. 13 seed Akron, the MAC champion, is a 14-point underdog vs. No. 4 seed Arizona in the East Region.
Akron (28-6 SU/16-16 ATS) is 21-2 SU in its last 23 games and made the Big Dance for the third time in four years. Last year, the Zips lost to Creighton 77-60 in the first round.
Arizona (22-12 SU/18-16 ATS) reached the Big 12 Tourney final before losing to Houston. Now, it’s onto the Big Dance, which hasn’t been terribly kind to the Wildcats of late. In their last six appearances, the ‘Cats were eliminated by a team seeded at least four spots lower.
Stone noted that Akron makes almost 11 3-pointers a game (10.7), hitting 36.6% from distance. Arizona’s opponents have made 33.6% of their 3-pointers.
“The 3-pointer can be the great equalizer in college basketball,” Stone said. “Akron shoots a lot of 3s, an average of 29.1 per game, and does it quite effectively.
“On the other hand, Arizona is fairly average at defending the 3-point line. I think Akron can keep this one relatively close and cover the number. I like the Zips +14.”
Akron and Arizona tip off at 7:35 p.m. ET on Friday.
All hail Yale
No. 13 seed Yale (22-7 SU/18-10 ATS) got an NCAA bid by winning the Ivy League. The Bulldogs’ reward is a matchup against yet another SEC team in No. 4 seed Texas A&M (22-10 SU/16-14-2 ATS).
But the masses are attracted to Yale, which opened as a 7.5-point underdog and is now +7 at Caesars.
“The betting public is coming in on Yale. They remember that Yale had the big win against Auburn last year,” Zanco said, alluding to the Bulldogs’ stunning 78-76 first-round victory, coincidentally as a No. 13 seed vs. a 4 seed. “You see the recency bias with a team like Yale, with the influx of public money.
“But there’s some professional money that laid 7 and 7.5 with Texas A&M.”
Remember the Tritons
UC San Diego (30-4 SU/25-7 ATS) has the best spread-covering mark of any team in the NCAA Tournament. Blindly betting on the Tritons all season long would’ve made you some good money.
As a 12-seed, UCSD meets 5-seed Michigan in a South Region game at 10 p.m. ET on Thursday. Bettors often like backing the 5 vs. the 12, and that’s the case here, as well.
“There’s great action on this game. The betting public is coming in on the Tritons, more so on the spread so far,” Zanco said.
But Tritons moneyline play will most certainly show up strong by Thursday night. Everyone loves a 12-5 upset.
“The public always gravitates toward the No. 12 seed on the moneyline,” Zanco said.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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