They say you can’t predict baseball. But if you’re going to try, why not go big?
We asked six writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports to dig deep and come up with one bold prediction for the rest of this season. Are these predictions that are likely to come to fruition? No, probably not.
But if any of them do, you can say you read about them here first.
Stats cited below are entering play Thursday.
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Pete Alonso will win the NL Triple Crown
By Jordan Shusterman, Yahoo Sports
Alonso was always going to be an intriguing character this season, regardless of how he was playing. His lengthy free agency that culminated in a short-term deal to stay in Queens was one of the bigger storylines of the winter, and it set the stage for Alonso to either prove all the uninterested teams wrong or validate their concerns by continuing to trend in the wrong direction.
So far, Alonso has done more than just reestablish his offensive credentials after what might’ve been his worst season in 2024 — he looks better than ever. This is most evident in his sky-high batting average (.328!), which is the key ingredient of this bold prediction. The notion that Alonso could lead the league in home runs and/or RBI is hardly an ambitious proclamation and seems highly plausible at this point. But entering this season, it would’ve been far-fetched to expect a career .249 hitter to compete for a batting title in tandem with his usual power production. Yet here we are!
What’s most compelling about Alonso’s sensational start to the year is that the gaudy surface-level stats are fully supported by a vast improvement in his underlying metrics. Alonso has always hit the ball exceptionally hard, but now he’s making markedly more contact, with career-low whiff (21.6%) and strikeout (17.2%) rates while walking at a career-best 15.4% clip. With elite power already in place, this uptick in on-base ability has enabled a huge spike in his overall production, which has Alonso in the thick of the NL MVP race — no small feat considering he has Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto as teammates.
The Athletics will win the AL West
By Mike Petriello, MLB.com
OK, hear me out: That great three-way race we thought we’d have between Houston, Texas and Seattle? It’s not happening. The Rangers are already in full-on fire-the-hitting-coach panic mode; the .500 Astros now have Yordan Alvarez health concerns; the Mariners are hitting surprisingly well, but how long are we betting on Jorge Polanco slugging over .700? The point is, the door to the division title is open.
To this point, the 20-18 A’s are doing a lot more than hanging in there. They’re making a race out of it, which is an incredible statement given that Mason Miller (4.61 ERA) and Lawrence Butler (103 OPS+), two players who are supposed to be their stars, haven’t exactly delivered all you’d expect yet. We figured the offseason addition of Luis Severino would help (it has); we assumed Brent Rooker would provide power (he has); we … OK, we didn’t think Tyler Soderstrom would do his best Mark McGwire impression or that Justin Sterner would pretend he’s Dennis Eckersley. But those moments count, and so do the wins they helped fuel.
Imagine, then, if Miller and Butler perk up. If Jeffrey Springs (4.81 ERA) looks more like the mid-rotation starter he was with Tampa Bay. If Jacob Wilson really is “Luis Arraez, but can play solid shortstop.” If the end of the Astros’ reign really has arrived. FanGraphs gives the A’s a 5% chance to pull this off. It’s not impossible.
Shohei Ohtani will not pitch in the postseason
By Jake Mintz, Yahoo Sports
Ohtani became a household name because he could do both. No player, in more than a century of baseball history, had ever pitched and hit simultaneously, let alone at an All-Star level. That was the schtick. Ohtani’s singular two-way ability earned him superstar status, two MVP awards and a $700 million contract.
Then, in September 2023, an injury changed everything. Ohtani, then an Angel, underwent reconstructive elbow surgery, the second such procedure of his career. And with his pitching life on hold, Ohtani found a way to elevate his offensive game to an even higher stratosphere. Now he’s Mr. 50-50, a power-speed unicorn who just won his third MVP Award based on the prowess of his bat and his legs.
Ohtani is, indisputably, a top-three hitter in the sport. That reality puts his employer in a tricky situation. As October approaches and Ohtani continues inching through his pitching recovery, the Dodgers will face a first-world problem. Because here’s the cold, hard truth: A full-gas return to pitching increases the likelihood of an injury that could sideline Ohtani for a significant stretch. If such an issue arises in October, it would leave L.A.’s lineup undermanned at the worst possible time.
And so there’s a compelling argument that utilizing Ohtani, the pitcher, in the postseason represents an unnecessary risk — a risk that, in a worst-case scenario, could sink this Dodgers juggernaut. Because while L.A.’s starting staff has been decimated by injuries in 2025, there remains a strong chance that the Dodgers enter October with enough healthy, competent starters.
So while everyone — except for opposing hitters — would love to see Ohtani on the bump in the postseason, what the people want and what’s optimal for his team might be two very different things.
Riley Greene will win the AL MVP Award
By Anthony Castrovince, MLB.com
The headline here should probably be “Aaron Judge will NOT be the AL MVP” because, let’s face it, right now the voting would look something like this:
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Judge
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Judge
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Judge’s newborn baby daughter
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Judge
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Bobby Witt Jr.
Regardless, last winter, in my annual way-too-early award picks (in which I generally try to stray from repeat winners such as Judge), I went with Greene, the Tigers’ outfielder, which means I am contractually bound to that pick, for better or worse (please disregard that my NL Cy Young pick is already done for the year). Judge is completely lapping the field right now, but that was also the case around this time in 2023, before he dealt with a midseason foot injury. I don’t wish injury upon him (not even to help me stumble upon a correct prediction for once), but it is a part of his career profile, unfortunately. Stranger things have happened.
Anyway, if nothing else, here’s an opportunity to pump up the 24-year-old Greene, who rebounded from a sluggish start to post Player of the Week production last week. The improved swing decisions he showed last year have not totally carried over to this season, but he shook off a dreadful slump at the start of the season and is back to being the best every-day player on a Tigers team that truly looks ready to roar.
Or, you know, maybe Judge just keeps making me and opposing pitchers look really bad.
Luis Arraez will strike out fewer than 20 times
By David Adler, MLB.com
Is this bold enough? Should I go for 15 strikeouts? Ten? After all, Arraez is the king of not striking out, and this year, the Padres’ first baseman is somehow striking out even less than usual. Arraez has exactly three Ks this season — in 30 games and 131 plate appearances. That’s an absurd 2.3% strikeout rate. He’s currently on pace to play 135 games, take 590 plate appearances … and finish with 14 strikeouts.
The last hitter to qualify for the batting title in a full 162-game season — Arraez has won three in a row, by the way — and strike out fewer than 20 times was Padres legend Tony Gwynn. Gwynn is the only hitter to do that in the past 30 years; he actually had five of those sub-20K seasons in his career, the last of which came in 1998, when he had 18 Ks in 505 plate appearances.
This will be a difficult pace to maintain all season, even for Arraez. The Padres’ star would have to exceed even his best seasons. Arraez’s career low for strikeouts in a full season is 29 (last year), and in his three batting title seasons, he averaged 35. To cut his strikeouts down even that last bit, from 29 to 20, is a tall order. But if anyone can do it, it’s him. Remember, Arraez went on a 141-plate-appearance strikeout-less streak just last year. He hasn’t struck out more than three times in a month since June. And he’s Gwynn’s spiritual successor in San Diego — the lone player in today’s game who could approach the Hall of Famer in the skill of making contact.
The Orioles will lose 90 games
By Russell Dorsey, Yahoo Sports
We’re not yet at Memorial Day, and it already looks like this Orioles season is beginning to wind down. Things have not gone well for Baltimore in what was supposed to be a big season for this organization after it won 90-plus games and made the playoffs in both 2023 and ’24. And so far in 2025, the Orioles’ weakness remains the same: starting pitching.
Following the departure of Corbin Burnes in free agency, the Orioles did very little to improve their rotation, and it shows. Baltimore currently ranks 28th in MLB in starter ERA (5.77). Of the six teams that finished 25th or worse in starter ERA last season, five lost at least 90 games. The other was the Arizona Diamondbacks, who had the best offense in the league, something the Orioles decidedly do not have. It feels like Baltimore’s window is beginning to close, which is hard to believe.
