Nationwide, Zillow predicts home prices to drop by an average of 1.0% by the end of June 2026.
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However, that national average masks the deep discrepancies between cities. Zillow projects prices to drop by as much as 13-17% in some smaller cities such as Greenville, MS, and Pecos, TX.
So which major metro areas will see the largest price drops?
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New Orleans, LA
Current Average Price: $247,205
Projected Price Drop: 7.2%
The Big Easy won’t live up to its name — at least for homeowners’ equity. Buyers will likely sing a happier tune, however.
“Demand has slowed, and there’s more inventory than buyers,” noted Yancy Forsythe of Missouri Valley Homes. Sure enough, the average listing now sits on the MLS for 51 days, according to Zillow, and prices have already dropped 3.9% over the last 12 months. “Add in rising insurance costs along the Gulf and you have a recipe for a fast-cooling market,” Forsythe said.
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San Francisco, CA
Current Average Price: $1,291,622
Projected Price Drop: 6.1%
San Francisco saw home prices skyrocket like everywhere else during and after the pandemic. But its affordability problems and blocked new housing supply started decades before then.
Real estate investor Fred Loguidice of Sell My House Fast Virginia doesn’t see much to like in the San Francisco housing market. “After years of high prices driven by tech, affordability constraints are forcing a market rebalancing. Inventory is gradually rising, and affordability remains stretched.”
Austin, TX
Current Average Price: $523,769
Projected Price Drop: 5.1%
Like New Orleans, property prices in Austin have already been free falling. They’ve fallen 6.5% over the past 12 months.
“Austin led the post-pandemic boom, but is now correcting,” added Loguidice. “Nearly half of listings saw price cuts, and absorption has slowed sharply to around 22% of listings selling per month.”
Corpus Christi, TX
Current Average Price: $222,136
Projected Price Drop: 5.0%
Home values have dropped 2.9% over the last year, and that decline appears to be accelerating.
“Corpus Christi is now a buyer’s market, where listings exceed buyers,” explained Daniel Erb, CEO of Strand Capital. Indeed, listings are languishing on the market for an average 48 days. Booming Gulf Coast insurance costs and lingering high interest rates certainly haven’t helped, either.
Denver, CO
Current Average Price: $555,304
Projected Price Drop: 3.8%
Denver exploded in popularity in the 2000s and 2010s. But like Austin and San Francisco, its star may have shot too far, too fast. Over the last year, home prices have fallen 4.1% — a rate that appears likely to continue.
Neighboring Boulder faces a similar decline, with Zillow projecting a drop of 4.3%. “These formerly red-hot markets are cooling as supply returns to more normalized levels, and buyers grow fatigued from high monthly costs, particularly with mortgage rates in the high-6% range,” added Loguidice.
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This article originally appeared on GOBankingRates.com: 5 Housing Markets Poised for Major Price Drops in 2026
