Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Now that the Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Miami Heat and Orlando Magic have officially punched their tickets to the 16-team playoff field, the NBA postseason can begin for real.
Play-in, schmay-in.
I’ll admit, it’s exciting that we no longer need to monitor which superstars are taking nights off for load management or which bum teams do and don’t care about the day-to-day basketball grind. Thank goodness.
Here are seven NBA betting thoughts heading into Round 1.
Whew, the Celtics and Thunder are expensive!
In terms of series prices, Boston is as high as -6000 in Las Vegas to advance past the Magic in the opening round. So, you’ve got to lay $6,000 to win $100, something I wouldn’t advise, no matter how free a space it seems. Oklahoma City isn’t as expensive against Memphis, but -4500 is also steep.
LeBron James can be beaten early in series
When I was a young reporter in Chicago, I covered a few Bulls’ playoff series against King James and his teams lost Game 1 three times. It’s probably not fair to say LeBron doesn’t prioritize a series opener, but he’s 31-23 all-time in postseason Game 1s. Michael Jordan (27-10) would never! It’s much more difficult to dethrone King James the deeper a series goes, but I was happy to bet some Minnesota Timberwolves +5 in Saturday’s premiere.
Everybody wants a piece of the LA Clippers
Six weeks ago, the Clips were 30-1 to win the Western Conference. Then they closed the regular season on a ferocious run, winning 18 of their last 21 contests. That’ll get the attention of any sports bettor. Now you’re lucky to find anything higher than 15-1 in the West market and LA is a sexy first-round bet against the Denver Nuggets. Denver opened as high as -190 to advance to the second round, but most books are dealing LA -120.
When will Damian Lillard return?
That’s the million-dollar question in Milwaukee. Lillard is no longer taking blood-thinning medication, per ESPN’s Shams Charania, so he’s certainly trending in the right direction. Lillard won’t play in Saturday’s opener, but given the way the NBA spaces out its first-round games, maybe he could play next Friday when the series shifts to Milwaukee. If the Bucks can earn a split in Indianapolis, the cavalry will be waiting to bet ‘em to win the series.
There’s money to be made in alternative markets
Basketball handicapper Rick Camp joined “Bet Sweats” this week, and he discussed several angles in some of the exotic markets. He placed bets on Nikola Jokić to make two 3s in every game against the Clippers (+2000), Anthony Edwards to have five assists in every game against the Lakers (+2000), and Mikal Bridges to have the most steals in Knicks-Pistons (+2500). These are fun markets where you bet a little to win a lot and Camp loves taking shots.
Houston is just a little ahead of schedule
There’s a reason the Rockets are a sizable underdog (+150) against Golden State despite being a 2-seed with home court advantage. Sure, Houston can easily win a couple of games, but it’s difficult to envision Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Draymond Green getting bounced in their first best-of-seven together. I have no issue laying -170 on the Warriors to advance, especially considering the market opened closer to -200. Let’s buy the dip.
Bet the Celtics to reach NBA Finals
Kudos to the Cleveland Cavaliers for winning 64 games and securing the No. 1 in the top-heavy Eastern Conference. I’m still not a believer. Boston boasts the best starting five in basketball and, barring injury, I don’t see it slipping on any banana peels on its way back to the NBA Finals. You can lay a relatively cheap -150 price on the Celtics winning the East for the second straight year and I imagine that’ll be more expensive down the road.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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