Freshman Cooper Flagg led the Duke Blue Devils to a Final Four appearance in the 2025 NCAA tournament before losing 70-67 in a shocker to Houston. Flagg won the Naismith Trophy for national college player of the year, along with several other awards and certainly lived up to the hype as the No. 1 overall recruit.
He is widely projected to be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft in June and has the potential to change a franchise, depending on which team wins the NBA Draft Lottery on Monday.
But just how big a difference will Flagg make to his incoming team?
Yahoo Sports asked BetMGM NBA trader Halvor Egeland to quantify how much every lottery team’s projected 2025-26 NBA title odds would change if it won the lottery and took Flagg No. 1 overall, as well as chatted with several other oddsmakers about Flagg’s potential impact.
“He’s a great player, but nowhere near the potential of Victor Wembanyama,” Egeland told Yahoo Sports in regard to Flagg’s potential compared to other No. 1 overall picks. “I don’t see the ceiling of Anthony Edwards personally, but it depends on the situation he goes into. I think the most interesting landing spot is San Antonio because it becomes one of the most desirable places to play.”
Oddsmakers also cautioned that Flagg’s impact in his first year may not be as big as some expect.
“What we’ve seen from him, even in his limited college experience, is that he’s a fabulous player,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings Sportsbook director. “But remember that Duke won the ACC conference title without him, so there were a lot of good players around him as well. Pro basketball is a whole different game. Even though he’s a really good player, it takes a while.”
Here is how Flagg would change the title odds for every lottery team:
Teams listed in order of odds to get No. 1 overall pick.
1. Utah Jazz (14%)
BetMGM projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 250-1
Odds with Flagg: 200-1
Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook: “I think Utah has a lot of nice, young pieces and just locked up its coach for an extension. Flagg would get a lot of playing time right away. A team like Utah did a lot more sitting out players than they needed to do to get the No. 1 spot. I think he could add a lot to a team like that and you’d probably see a healthier roster this season. I’d probably move from 200-1 to 100-1.”
2. Washington Wizards (14%)
BetMGM projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 250-1
Odds with Flagg: 200-1
Avello: “They didn’t have a good season. There are a lot of parts there, but I think they are 250-1 with him if he goes there. They might even be higher.”
3. Charlotte Hornets (14%)
BetMGM projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 250-1
Odds with Flagg: 200-1
Avello: “They had a lot of injuries this year, so they’re a little better team than the Wizards. Charlotte is probably 175-1 if he goes there.”
4. New Orleans Pelicans (12.5%)
BetMGM projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 80-1
Odds with Flagg: 70-1
Avello: “Zion Williamson just hasn’t panned out so far, so maybe the two of them together could work some magic. I think around 150-1 with [Flagg], though.”
5. Philadelphia 76ers (10.5%)*
BetMGM projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 20-1
Odds with Flagg: 15-1
*The Sixers’ first-round pick is top-6 protected; if it falls between 7-14, it will go to Oklahoma City.
Egeland: “Easily the most interesting one and one of the tougher teams to price in general, but we’re probably going to open them somewhat short. Could be 20-1 and move to 14-1. That’s a more significant move.”
Sherman: “I would be initially at 25-1 for the 76ers, but if they got Flagg and with getting Jared McCain back, I could see them at 16-1.”
Avello: “The 76ers were actually a contender, but just had a bad season. They have quite a nucleus there with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey and Paul George. I think they’re in the 15-1 range with him. That’s a team he can go to and make an impact pretty early. They already have the pieces there to contend for a championship.”
6. Brooklyn Nets (9%)
BetMGM projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 150-1
Odds with Flagg: 125-1
Avello: “The Nets are probably 150-1 range or so with him. They had a pretty good year, and he would definitely help them.”
7. Toronto Raptors (7.5%)
Projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 150-1
Odds with Flagg: 125-1
Avello: “Decent season for the Raptors and they’d win some more games with him but nowhere close to a contender. Toronto maybe 125-1 with him.”
8. San Antonio Spurs (6%)
Projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 30-1
Odds with Flagg: 25-1
Egeland: “They could even open up shorter than 30-1, but Wemby’s health is going to play the biggest factor in this one.”
Sherman: “I have the Spurs and Rockets as possible Giannis [Antetokounmpo] and [Kevin] Durant destinations. I was thinking San Antonio like 20-1, and if you do Flagg on top of that — 16-1. Even more, they could include him in a trade if they wanted immediate help. It would give them more flexibility. My initial thought was lower on those teams that the public is going to go after once odds are released, like San Antonio and Houston.”
9. Houston Rockets (3.8%)*
Projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 20-1
Odds with Flagg: 18-1
*This is the Phoenix Suns’ pick, which will go to the Rockets.
Avello: “Real successful year for the Rockets. I would make them 30-1 with him. They’re already showing they are a good team. He would enhance the team and make them a surefire contender.”
10. Portland Trail Blazers (3.7%)
Projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 150-1
Odds with Flagg: 125-1
Egeland: “I do like some of the pieces here, but Flagg isn’t going to be enough to put them over so many other teams in the West.”
11. Dallas Mavericks (1.8%)
Projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 45-1
Odds with Flagg: 40-1
Egeland: “Assuming Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis are back, this is a good team and would be quite a landing spot after the Luka Dončić trade.”
Sherman: “The only thing with the Kyrie aspect is he’s supposed to be back in January, and at his age, I don’t know how effective he’ll be. Initially I’d have Dallas at 60-1 and if they got Flagg, I could see going 40-1. If Kyrie was completely healthy, it would be a different conversation.”
12. Chicago Bulls (1.7%)
Projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 100-1
Odds with Flagg: 80-1
Egeland: “Don’t think it does much to their title hopes.”
13. Sacramento Kings (0.8%)*
*The Kings’ first-round pick is top-12 protected; if it falls out of that range, it goes to Atlanta.
Projected 2025-26 NBA title odds: 80-1
Odds with Flagg: 70-1
Egeland: “That’s another one that won’t make too big of a difference.”
14. San Antonio Spurs (0.7%)*
*This is the Atlanta Hawks’ pick, which will go to the Spurs.
