Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The 2025 men’s NCAA Tournament is about as favorite-driven as it gets.
Upsets have been few and far between and only three games saw a team seeded higher than three slots pull off an outright upset: 12-seed McNeese over 5-seed Clemson, 11-seed Drake over 6-seed Missouri, and 10-seed Arkansas over 2-seed St. John’s.
That’s it.
I know you want to add 12-seed Colorado State over 5-seed Memphis, but the Rams closed as a 3-point favorite, so it’s literally not an upset.
It poses the question: Will an underdog ever win again?
“No,” Westgate SuperBook vice president of risk Ed Salmons told FOX Sports. “It’s been very disappointing from where we were after last Saturday.”
Salmons’ teammate John Murray echoed the same sentiments.
“It would be nice if an underdog would bust one of these parlays this weekend,” the SuperBook vice president told me from his fancy office in the back of the sportsbook. “But they won’t.”
Favorites in the Sweet 16 went a perfect 8-0 on the moneyline because, of course, it’s that simple. There was a ton of chatter across the betting world Thursday and Friday about parlaying Duke ML to Alabama ML or Houston ML to Tennessee ML.
Whatever variation you did with favorites worked.
Upset schmupset.
“I wrote over 300 moneyline parlays Friday,” South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews told FOX Sports. “Anywhere from $10 to $5,000. We’re still okay for the Tournament, but the last two nights took a big bite out of us.”
You already know Saturday is chock-full of bettors walking up to the windows or logging into their apps to fire a Duke ML to Florida ML parlay.
It’s inevitable and there’s no defense against it.
It also makes sense in a vacuum. People don’t want to lay 7.5 points with Duke or Florida when they can just wheel them to win outright. It seems easy, but it’s been easy.
And we’re certainly not here to cry for the books.
“Screw ‘em,” one professional bettor told FOX Sports. “I bet $5,000 Duke to Florida overnight at -125. Just win. It’ll be more expensive at tip-off because of all the liability. These teams at the top are just too good, so why not?”
In the big picture, all these favorites rolling does make one wonder about the future of this storied Tournament. Are the days of 13-14-15 seeds pulling major upsets over? Will the mid-majors ever be able to keep their teams together given the changing landscape and copious amounts of NIL money?
“I do wonder if it changes next year,” basketball analyst and bettor Tom Casale told FOX Sports. “But it’s been two years in a row with a lot of chalk. I guess it’s difficult with 700 kids or so in the transfer portal.
“San Diego State is losing its entire team. Brian Dutcher built great teams by having tough veterans who stayed in the program for three, four years.
“I don’t know if you can do that anymore.”
Shame.
Sunday’s favorites are much shorter than Saturday’s, with Houston a 3.5-point favorite over Tennessee and Auburn laying 5 to Michigan State.
While the betting math says it’s more likely we see an upset, the public will undoubtedly be willing to find out if its full-proof systems are still prosperous.
“It’s like booking regular-season NFL,” Salmons cracked. “We just need any of these favorites to go down Saturday or Sunday, and we’ll be ecstatic.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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