Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Even former NFL linemen can appreciate the spectacle that is the NCAA Tournament.
Like most, come Thursday, I’m all basketball, all the time.
Let’s have a look at my three best bets for the first round.
And yes, of course I’ve got an Oregon wager mixed in there.
No. 12 McNeese State vs. No. 5 Clemson
I like Clemson to win and cover this game against McNeese State, and it would not surprise me to see Clemson into the second weekend or beyond based on its potential and style of play.
Clemson is 31st in 3-point shooting and 16th in defensive efficiency, while being 55th in turnovers at just about 10.5 per game. The Tigers are also 41st in foul shooting and rebound well.
I will always back a team that doesn’t turn it over and can make foul shots.
McNeese State is a feisty team that went 27-6 this season and 19-1 in the Southland Conference. McNeese played two Quad-1 teams in Alabama and Mississippi State, losing both but covering both. However, those games were early in the season and I don’t put much into my handicap for what happened in November and mid-December.
McNeese State is a small team with no one over 6-foot-9, which shows in its inability to rebound. McNeese relies on forcing turnovers to create offense, but Clemson doesn’t give the ball away. The Cowboys do shoot the ball well and Clemson will have to limit their ability to make 3s and get out into space. However McNeese does not make foul shots, which would worry me if you’re backing them.
Also hanging over this game is the status of McNeese State’s head coach, Will Wade. Wade has admitted he’s been speaking with North Carolina State about their open coaching position, and it seems likely that’s his next job. While I do not believe Wade has prepared any less for this game than other games, it’s worth noting that college football teams who have coaches on the way out often lose focus and do not play as well.
This feels like the case here. Wade is gone after this game. Will his team be as motivated?
PICK: Clemson (-7.5) to win by more than 7.5 points
No. 12 Liberty vs. No. 5 Oregon
Oregon has won eight of its last nine games, including one game in the Big Ten Tournament before losing to Michigan State. One of the driving forces for its recent success is the play of center Nate Bittle. The former five-star recruit has come into his own this season and is averaging 18.5 points per game over the Ducks’ last nine games, including 36 against Washington on March 9.
Oregon is playing a small Liberty squad, ranking near the bottom of 364 Division I teams in team height. The guy guarding Bittle will be 6-foot-8 center Owen Aquino. Bittle already makes 51% of his shots and makes 82% of foul shots. I like Bittle to score in this one.
PICK: Nate Bittle Over 14.5 points (-125)
No. 15 Omaha vs. No. 2 St. John’s
A method for wagering on underdogs in this Tournament is taking them to cover in the first half before the big dog takes over. I like Omaha to cover a low-scoring first half against St John’s.
The Johnnies are the best defensive team in the country and Omaha will struggle to score. However, Omaha rebounds well and does make a fair amount of its 3s. Just four or five made 3s in the first half could keep this game close if Omaha is able to pack in its defense.
St. John’s does not make 3s and if Omaha can just scramble enough on defense and rebound effectively, it will keep it close. Omaha also does not turn the ball over, which will keep this game close enough for my wager.
PICK: Omaha (first half +11.5) to trail by fewer than 11.5 points or lead at halftime
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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