Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Sportsbooks have started posting win totals for the 2025 college football season.
And if there’s anything you should know about me, you should know that I get pumped for all things college football — even if we’re more than four months away from kickoff.
With that in mind, there are a few win totals that I think are worth a wager right now.
Let’s dive into it.
Colorado Over/Under 6.5 wins
The Buffaloes have gone over their win total in two straight seasons under Deion Sanders. But in Year 3, they are going to take a step backward as they rebuild their offensive skill positions.
They return only 44% of their offense from last season and that’s mostly on the offensive line. Colorado loses quarterback Sheduer Sanders and its top-four receiving options from last season — including Heisman winner Travis Hunter. The offense was functional last season because of the players. It wasn’t because of the scheme, which is outdated, static and boring.
I’m concerned that new players will be less talented and won’t be able to make up for scheme deficiencies. Add to that a shaky offensive line. I just don’t trust the offense to have the same success in 2025.
Defensively, Colorado was far better than expected under first-year defensive coordinator Rob Livingston. The Buffaloes were especially stout in the second half of games and rushed the passer well to close out contests.
The Buffs defense loses its best player in Hunter. It also loses its top pass rusher and both of its top linebackers. It will once again rely on the portal for production at defensive tackle and at linebacker, but it does return most of its secondary.
The Buffaloes’ schedule features tough road games at Utah and Kansas State, then home contests against Iowa State, Arizona State and BYU. CU opens with Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets, by the way, are a tough out any week of the season.
PICK: Colorado Under 6.5 wins
Cal Over/Under 6.5 wins
The Bears went 6-6 in their first ACC season, and I don’t see how they get to seven wins in 2025 with their current roster.
Cal lost its two best offensive players. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza left for Indiana and running back Jadyn Ott just announced he’s entering the transfer portal. The Bears just don’t have the roster to replace the talent and production of those two players.
Cal went portal-heavy to rebuild the offensive line and I do not trust lines that have been rebuilt via the portal to play well early in a season.
The Bears defense is generally OK under Justin Wilcox, but it is a unit that plays better than its talent level. And as the sport gets further along with NIL and with the portal, the further Cal moves away from being competitive in getting the best high school or college athletes.
It’s also worth noting that when Cal played an offense with a functional quarterback last season, it allowed tons of points. Its out-of-conference schedule is winnable, but it would need to win three of those four games to have a chance at seven wins — especially because its conference schedule includes some heavy hitters.
PICK: Cal Under 6.5 wins
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Michigan State Over/Under 5.5 wins
I’m a Jonathan Smith believer and the Spartans’ head coach will have his team bowling in 2025.
I’ve seen his ability to build and develop a roster at Oregon State, and now, he’s got a chance to do that with better players at Michigan State.
The Spartans went 5-7 last season and rank 30th in returning production for 2025. They struggled on offense with quarterback Aidan Chiles starting his first season. He’s talented and will develop in Year 2.
The MSU defense had issues, but that was expected, as Smith is rebuilding the roster. We will see the fruits of that labor in 2025. The Spartans’ schedule is manageable, with three winnable non-conference games and no games against Oregon or Ohio State.
I like the Spartans to have at least six wins.
PICK: Michigan State Over 5.5 wins
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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